A simple linear regression, two world wars and the emergence of Germany.


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Raymond A. Millen gives a conference in the US Army War College on Germany’s economic and political power in Europe, the eighth and final presentation for the 2011 Great Decisions Program, was held at the Post Chapel on Friday, March 11. The presentations for the year covered such topics as national security challenges, global governance, development efforts, financial and debt crisis, the dangerous conditions in the Horn of Africa, controlling the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and the countries and regions of the Caucasus.

One Comment to “A simple linear regression, two world wars and the emergence of Germany.”

  1. Daniel Martin dice:

    This is the most superficial and empty analysis I’ve seen on European matters in a long, long time.
    Keeping to headlines, it more or less covers what happened till the end of WWII, even to then end of the Cold War. But the way it covers European developments from 1990 on, it’s frankly embarrassing.

    Germany is back, yes. Make no mistake about it. But if the American perspective is that it’s now a trusted ally and we’ve nothing to fear… well, they’re in for a surprise.

    Because here in Euroland we’re definitely seeing another kind of Germany. It saddens me to say it, because I’ve been an ardent supporter of EU integration, but Margaret Thatcher had it right. You just cannot trust these guys. They’re back to their old tricks. They may have no armies to threaten us (yet, though I’m sure they’ll come, and it won’t take them long to build them), but their economic policies are all about crushing the rest of Europe into submission. They fooled us into the Maastricht Treaty, creating all these non-democratic institutions (the Euro, the ECB, European Commission, European Council) that are just German bully tools, defending only their narrow interests. The result: capital flight into Germany (which can finance itself at negative real interest rates), qualified people seeking jobs there for low wages, misery in the periphery.

    The EU could be coming out of the recession like the US or Japan, using economic tools we know about since the 1930s… But Germany, having had a major part in creating the Euro crisis through beggar-thy-neighbor policies, is consciously pushing the Eurozone into a Depression, simply to perpetuate their hegemony.

    The EU story will only end one way: very badly. It’s only a question of when. The whole periphery is sunk into misery and close to implosion. When it happens it will hit Germany as well, of course, but they’ve been busy paving the way by preparing their public opinion to hate their neighbors. Reading through German papers (even serious ones) drives one to tears nowadays. When this whole thing goes to hell, Merkel and co will blame it on “those profligate Southerners and Frenchies” as usual. From there you get to racial hatred very easily. Doesn’t that ring a bell?

    By then Germany will have complete hegemony. It probably won’t take them very long to raise a real army, like in the 1930s. And we’re back to square one. Sad and… scary.

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